publications

2024

1. ENENSU

   

   Techno-economics of Green Hydrogen: Present Trends and Future Prospects

   Pablo Benalcazar, and Aleksandra Komorowska

   2024

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   Techno-economic aspects of green hydrogen production play a significant role in shaping the development and deployment of new hydrogen facilities. Comprehensive analyses of cost components that impact the levelized cost of green hydrogen have become increasingly important for supporting investment strategies and production planning processes. Furthermore, these analyses have proven valuable in decision-making processes related to the establishment of support mechanisms that ensure the sustainable energy transition of national and local power, heating, and transport sectors. This chapter identifies and discusses various metrics and factors affecting the nascent green hydrogen market. Additionally, this chapter is devoted to identifying the current economic trends and future prospects of green hydrogen production technologies, specifically alkaline, proton exchange membranes, and solid oxide water electrolysis powered by renewable energy sources. Finally, the chapter analyzes existing policy efforts and various policy instruments to promote green hydrogen as a critical element in the decarbonization of global economies.

2. JEPO

   

   From consumer to prosumer: A model-based analysis of costs and benefits of grid-connected residential PV-battery systems

   Pablo Benalcazar, Maciej Kalka, and Jacek Kamiński

   Energy Policy, 2024

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   The development of the European PV market has shown the strong potential for using grid-connected solar PV systems operated simultaneously with battery storage. Since 2018, an important policy measure for the enhanced deployment of small-scale photovoltaic installations in Poland has been the grant support program “My electricity”. Starting from April 2022, the program provides financial support to projects that include energy storage systems. In this context, this study contributes to the literature on the acceptance and uptake of PV-battery systems in Poland by evaluating the effect of tariff incentives on the optimal operation of grid-connected residential PV-battery systems. The developed framework addresses the uncertainty of PV power generation and demand using predictive models based on LSTM neural networks. An optimization component is developed to capture the effect of battery degradation and ensure the effective utilization of the PV-battery system. The results indicate that installing a PV system in a residential home reduces the energy bill by 40%, from € 475.53 to € 287.18. Moreover, the quantitative analysis indicates that the potential adoption of a feed-in tariff that mimics the current prosumer policy in Germany and the coupling of battery systems would cause fundamental changes in the grid utilization of Polish households.

3. RSER

   

   Techno-economic analysis and uncertainty assessment of green hydrogen production in future exporting countries

   Pablo Benalcazar, and Aleksandra Komorowska

   Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2024

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   The uncoordinated development of a green hydrogen economy could potentially have far-reaching geopolitical implications. The differential access to resources and technologies will affect the import-export relations between countries. This study presents a techno-economic analysis of large-scale green hydrogen production systems in countries that may emerge as major clean hydrogen producers and exporters (Australia, Chile, Morocco, and Colombia). Additionally, it investigates the impact of different uncertainties on their levelized costs of hydrogen (LCOH) and provides a comparative analysis of local wind and solar resources. The uncertainties encompass factors influencing the LCOH, including electricity and water prices, capital, operational, and replacement costs, utilization rates, efficiency ratios, and system lifetime. A Monte Carlo simulation was developed and employed for the techno-economic assessment of large-scale hydrogen production systems in seventy-six spatially distributed sites. The results indicate that Chile has the potential to produce green hydrogen at the lowest cost (2.8–4.5/kg in 2030). The LCOH in Morocco may range from 3.2 to 3.5/kg, Australia from 3.2 to 3.6/kg, and Colombia from 4.1 to $4.9/kg by 2030. The simulations indicate that the LCOH is most sensitive to changes in specific investment costs and the utilization rates of electrolyzers, regardless of the country and scenario examined.

4. JECT

   

   Geography-based transmission network expansion strategies for Andean electrical systems

   Wilian Guaman, Pablo Benalcazar, Kevin Nacato, and 1 more author

   Journal of Economy and Technology, 2024

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   In many countries of the Global South, transmission network expansion faces unique challenges due to the diversity of available resources and specific geographic conditions. These challenges are particularly evident in regions with complex geographies, such as the Andean region, where elevation differences and irregular topography pose significant obstacles to the development of electricity infrastructure. This study addresses these challenges by applying non-conventional strategies for transmission grid expansion, with a particular emphasis on adapting to the unique geographic features of the Andean region. To illustrate this, a case study called EC-45 bus system is developed using Ecuador as a country representative of the geographic diversity of the Andean region. Furthermore, this work presents a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model that prioritizes the repowering and reconfiguration of existing lines over the construction of new lines. The methodology employed evaluates the investment required for the construction of new lines, considering construction costs for three site types (<1000 meters above sea level (m.a.s.l.), ≥1000 m.a.s.l., and combined). Quantitative results show that using non-conventional solution methods can generate savings of up to 30.60% in investment costs compared to the solution provided by the Linear Disjunctive model. This approach offers a way towards more efficient management of resources, especially in countries with complex geographies such as the Andean one.

5. APEN

   

   A GIS-based method for assessing the economics of utility-scale photovoltaic systems

   Pablo Benalcazar, Aleksandra Komorowska, and Jacek Kamiński

   Applied Energy, 2024

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   Solar photovoltaic capacities have experienced remarkable gains worldwide. The accelerated deployment of photovoltaic (PV) systems has emphasized the need for methods and tools that can assist in planning and investment decisions of utility-scale photovoltaic systems to ensure a sustainable energy transition. This study bridges the gap between research and current solar PV project evaluation practices by proposing a geographic information system (GIS)-based approach for analyzing land eligibility and performing techno-economic assessments of utility-scale photovoltaic systems. To tackle the issue of country-specific cost elements, the model incorporates a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) breakdown often used by governmental and intergovernmental organizations. The proposed GIS-based model can assist in mapping the distribution of eligible land for utility-scale solar systems while considering exclusion constraints, estimating PV capacity and generation potentials, as well as determining the average LCOE of utility-scale solar photovoltaic systems at a spatial resolution of 100 m. The GIS-based approach is demonstrated through the case study of Poland. The model estimates that 3.61% of the total area of Poland is suitable for the installation of utility-scale solar PV systems. Implementing PV installations in these areas would result in solar capacities ranging from 394.64 to 563.77 GW. Furthermore, the findings of the case study indicate that the LCOE would range from €0.043/kWh to €0.049/kWh, with a national average of €0.045/kWh. The proposed approach can be utilized to develop national and regional strategies focused on large-scale PV installations, facilitating the attainment of renewable energy goals. The study fills a significant gap in the literature as it provides a GIS-based tool for planning the sustainable development of utility-scale PV systems at the regional scale. In addition, it is the first to comprehensively assess the capacity and generation potential of utility-scale solar photovoltaics in Poland at the NUTS-2 level.

2023

1. Energies

   

   Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems for Sustainable Rural Development: Perspectives and Challenges in Energy Systems Modeling

   Lauren Natividad, and Pablo Benalcazar

   Energies, 2023

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   Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HRESs) have proven to be viable solutions for rural electrification. They not only electrify rural locations but also provide environmentally sustainable, secure, and affordable energy if optimized. These systems can best be described as generators of electricity from multiple energy sources that complement each other. Optimized HRESs often generate affordable electricity by minimizing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and carbon emissions. The investigation of social benefit factors within energy poverty is a relatively new discussion in the study of modeling off-grid energy systems. In this perspective article, we examine the importance of computational tools for the energy transition of rural and remote communities. We show that classical and heuristic models possess the capability of optimizing hybrid renewable energy systems considering social parameters including health, education, and income. This is followed by a discussion about the potential changes these computational tools would need to go through to integrate interdisciplinary factors and address societal transformations. The essence of this paper showcases the influx of literature about this topic; additionally, we look beyond the traditional optimization approaches to disclose that new contributions are evolving based on both current and potential needs within society.

2. IJHE

   

   Evaluating the competitiveness and uncertainty of offshore wind-to-hydrogen production: A case study of Poland

   Aleksandra Komorowska, Pablo Benalcazar, and Jacek Kamiński

   International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2023

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   Offshore wind is currently the most rapidly growing renewable energy source on a global scale. The increasing deployment and high economic potential of offshore wind have prompted considerable interest in its use for hydrogen production. In this context, this study develops a Monte Carlo-based framework for assessing the competitiveness of offshore wind-to-hydrogen production. The framework is designed to evaluate the location-based variability of the levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH) and explore the uncertainty that exists in the long-term planning of hydrogen production installations. The case study of Poland is presented to demonstrate the application of the framework. This work provides a detailed analysis of the LCOH considering the geographical coordinates of 23 planned offshore wind farms in the Baltic Sea. Moreover, it presents a comparative analysis of hydrogen production costs from offshore and onshore wind parks in 2030 and 2050. The results show that hydrogen from offshore wind could range between €3.60 to €3.71/kg H2 in 2030, whereas in 2050, it may range from €2.05 to €2.15/kg H2.

2022

1. Energies

   

   An Integrated Approach to Long-Term Fuel Supply Planning in Combined Heat and Power Systems

   Pablo Benalcazar, Jacek Kamiński, and Karol Stós

   Energies, 2022

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   This paper examines the issue of strategic planning of fuel supplies in combined heat and power systems. This is a major challenge in energy modeling because heating-degree day calculation methods only address short-term horizons and are not suitable for the long-term planning of fuel supplies. In this work, a comprehensive method is proposed for strategic fuel supply planning of independent heat producers. The method considers changes in the market dynamics of residential and commercial properties, the annual rate of customer acquisition by the network operator, customer disconnections, as well as the thermal modernization of buildings for estimating the long-term thermal energy demand of an urban area. Moreover, the method develops a mathematical model to minimize production costs, taking into account the technical constraints of the system. The proposed strategic planning tool, in addition to information on the quantities of fuel consumed for heat and electricity production, also provides valuable management information on the operational costs of the CHP system and its environmental impact. The application of the method is illustrated with the analysis of a large-scale combined heat and power plant supplying heat and electricity to a city with over 500,000 inhabitants. The results indicate that depending on the changes in the primary and secondary heat markets, the demand for energy carriers may range from 107.37 TWh to 119.87 TWh.

2. IJHE

   

   Prospects of green hydrogen in Poland: A techno-economic analysis using a Monte Carlo approach

   Pablo Benalcazar, and Aleksandra Komorowska

   International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2022

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   The European Commission’s plan to decarbonize the economy using innovative energy carriers has brought into question whether the national targets for developing electrolysis technologies are sufficiently ambitious to establish a local hydrogen production industry. While several research works have explored the economic viability of individual green hydrogen production and storage facilities in the Western European Member States, only a few studies have examined the prospects of large-scale green hydrogen production units in Poland. In this study, a Monte Carlo-based model is proposed and developed to investigate the underlying economic and technical factors that may impact the success of the Polish green hydrogen strategy. Moreover, it analyzes the economics of renewable hydrogen at different stages of technological development and market adoption. This is achieved by characterizing the local meteorological conditions of Polish NUTS-2 regions and comparing the levelized cost of hydrogen in such regions in 2020, 2030, and 2050. The results show the geographical locations where the deployment of large-scale hydrogen production units will be most cost effective.

2021

1. Energies

   

   Assessing the Effects of Uncertain Energy and Carbon Prices on the Operational Patterns and Economic Results of CHP Systems

   Pablo Benalcazar, Przemysław Kaszyński, and Jacek Kamiński

   Energies, 2021

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   In the power and heat sectors, the uncertainty of energy and carbon prices plays a decisive role in the rationale for decommissioning/repurposing coal-fired CHP (combined heat and power) systems and on investment decisions of energy storage units. Therefore, there is a growing need for advanced methods that incorporate the stochastic disturbances of energy and carbon emission prices into the optimization process of an energy system. In this context, this paper proposes an integrated method for investigating the effects of uncertain energy and carbon prices on the operational patterns and financial results of CHP systems with thermal energy storage units. The approach combines mathematical programming and Monte Carlo simulation. The computational process generates feasible solutions for profit maximization considering the technical constraints of the CHP system and the variation of energy and carbon emission prices. Four scenarios are established to compare the operational patterns and economic performance of a CHP system in 2020 and 2030. Results show that in 2020, there is an 80% probability that the system’s annual profit will be less than or equal to €30.98 M. However, at the same probability level, the annual profit in 2030 could fall below €11.88 M. Furthermore, the scenarios indicate that the incorporation of a thermal energy storage unit leads to higher expected profits (€0.74 M in 2020 and €0.71 M in 2030). This research shows that coal-fired CHP plant operators will face costly risks and potentially greater challenges in the upcoming years with the increasing regulatory and financial pressure on CO2 emissions and the EU’s plan of phasing out fossil fuels from electricity and heat generation.

2. Energies

   

   Optimal Location-Allocation of Printing Devices for Energy Saving Using a Novel MILP Approach

   Przemysław Kaszyński, Pablo Benalcazar, Piotr Pałka, and 2 more authors

   Energies, 2021

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   In recent years, a growing number of enterprises have taken different steps to reduce the energy consumption and carbon emissions of information and communication technology (ICT) assets. Because of the expansion of digitalization and the need for rapid access to information, enterprises have been compelled to optimize the location and utilization of their ICT hardware. In this context, this paper presents a novel method based on a mixed-integer linear programming approach for optimizing the physical location and task allocation of printing devices in office floor plans considering the power usage of the ICT assets, the costs related to the purchase and service of the individual devices, operating costs, and distance between employees and printing devices. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated using the case study of a company with 100 functional departments located in several office buildings across Poland. The results reveal that the model guarantees the execution of all printing tasks and satisfies the functionality requirements expressed by the users of the workstations. Moreover, the selection of more energy-efficient printing devices leads to a considerable reduction in electricity consumption, related not only to the direct operation of these devices but also to their modes of operation (work, idle, or sleep). Such results also bring tangible effects in reducing carbon dioxide emissions, which is particularly important for businesses operating in countries where fossil fuels still dominate the energy mix.

3. Energy

   

   Optimal sizing of thermal energy storage systems for CHP plants considering specific investment costs: A case study

   Pablo Benalcazar

   Energy, 2021

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   In the next decades, energy storage technologies will play a major role in decarbonizing the European heating and cooling sector. In this regard, the deployment of complementary technologies is of paramount importance for the energy transformation of the Polish heating sector. This work addresses the challenge of sizing large-scale thermal energy storage (TES) systems for combined heat and power (CHP) plants connected to district heating networks and participating in day-ahead electricity markets. In this paper, a method based on a mixed-integer linear programming approach is proposed to find the optimal capacity of TES units connected to coal-fired CHP systems. The model considers the specific investment costs of the storage technology and optimizes the annual operation scheduling of the CHP-TES system. The model is applied to the case study of a coal-fired CHP system. Four scenarios are used to investigate the performance of the CHP system and evaluate the effects of rising carbon prices on the optimal capacity of the TES unit. The results reveal that the integration of the TES leads to a significant drop in the utilization of the heat-only boilers, helping mitigate fuel and environmental costs.

4. ECM

   

   Sizing and optimizing the operation of thermal energy storage units in combined heat and power plants: An integrated modeling approach

   Pablo Benalcazar

   Energy Conversion and Management, 2021

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   Thermal energy storage technologies are of great importance for the power and heating sector. They have received much recent attention due to the essential role that combined heat and power plants with thermal stores will play in the transition from conventional district heating systems to 4th and 5th generation district heating systems. This paper presents a novel decision support method for sizing and optimizing the operation of thermal energy storage units in combined heat and power plants. To achieve this goal, the method in this paper comprises three steps. The first step provides an approximation of the storage capacity based on the characterization of the thermal load. The second step extends the applicability of the method by enabling the evaluation of the hourly operation of the combined heat and power plant with thermal storage. The third step evaluates the long-term economic effects of retrofitting the combined heat and power plant with a heat storage option. The applicability of the method is illustrated using the example of a coal-fired combined heat and power plant and the study of two scenarios. The analysis of the scenarios shows that the utilization of the energy storage enhances the operational flexibility of the system by increasing the number of hours in which the combined heat and power plant operates at its maximum electrical output and, at the same time, reduces the thermal contribution of the heat-only boilers. The method developed in this work can be applied to carry out the financial analysis of an energy storage project.

5. MMCEM

   

   Chapter 14 - Optimizing CHP operational planning for participating in day-ahead power markets: The case of a coal-fired CHP system with thermal energy storage

   Pablo Benalcazar, and Jacek Kamiński

   In Mathematical Modelling of Contemporary Electricity Markets , 2021

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   Combined heat and power (CHP) have been internationally recognized as a low-carbon electricity technology that will transform the way future power systems operate. In the last two decades, technological advances in energy storage technologies have accelerated their integration with CHP plants and district heating systems. As the importance of energy storage becomes more apparent, and the prospects of new revenue streams for energy companies expand, several questions have been asked by relevant stakeholders regarding the potential economic and operational effects of integrating CHP plants and energy storage units. Furthermore, a major challenge in future decades is the decarbonization of heat production, one of the most energy-intensive sectors in the world. A potential solution for the mitigation of carbon emissions and air pollutants is the deployment of systems comprised of or integrated with combined heat and power technologies. This chapter presents a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) approach for solving the operation planning problem (commonly referred in the literature as “day plan”) of a coal-fired CHP system. The system comprises a CHP plant (equipped with an extraction-condensing steam turbine driven by two pulverized coal-fired boilers), two auxiliary boilers and a tank thermal energy storage. The objective of the mathematical model is the minimization of the operating costs of the CHP system considering the heat demand of a district heating network and the potential revenues from the sales of electricity in the local power market. An illustrative example based on a typical cogeneration system operating in Central and Eastern Europe is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach. Two scenarios are investigated to highlight the advantages of the model in dealing with the co-optimization of heat and power.

2020

1. JNGSE

   

   Optimal location of gas network maintenance centres: A case study from Poland

   Marcin Malec, Pablo Benalcazar, and Przemysław Kaszyński

   Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, 2020

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   The delivery of natural gas to consumers requires significant infrastructure that consists of numerous technical units and other gas transmission assets. The failure of a single component in a gas transmission and distribution network might compromise the reliability of the gas supply system. Thus, the proper location of facilities for employees and contractors performing inspections and maintenance activities is of critical importance for the uninterrupted operation of a natural gas network. In this context, this study addresses the problem of identifying the optimal location of gas network maintenance centres (GNMCs) in a natural gas transmission company which is actively seeking to improve its maintenance and service response times while minimising costs. In an effort to determine the optimal number of GNMCs required to maintain assets in areas covered by the company, a decision-support tool based on a mixed-integer linear programming approach (MILP) is proposed. The tool is applied to the case study of a natural gas transmission company operating in central Poland. The case study is extended to explore four alternative scenarios which illustrate the additional functionalities of the proposed model. The model results indicate that the total system cost of the gas network maintenance infrastructure can be reduced by up to 13% with the operation of only two out of five existing GNMCs and one candidate facility. The results also demonstrate the versatility of the optimisation model since it enables decision-makers to evaluate the effects of changing maintenance strategies.

2. JEPO

   

   Economic consequences of a capacity market implementation: The case of Poland

   Aleksandra Komorowska, Pablo Benalcazar, Przemysław Kaszyński, and 1 more author

   Energy Policy, 2020

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   This paper investigates the potential economic consequences of setting up a capacity market in Poland. A computable model of the Polish power generation system is developed and employed to analyse the impact of this mechanism. Two scenarios are designed for this study: (i) a reference scenario that reflects the energy-only market and (ii) a capacity market scenario that assumes the implementation of such an instrument. To assess the economic consequences, the following parameters are estimated: (i) annual electricity prices, (ii) Loss Of Load Hours, (iii) Expected Energy Not Served, and only for the capacity market scenario: (iv) market clearing price, (v) total budget of the capacity market, and (vi) increase in electricity price due to the introduction of the capacity market. The findings of the study indicate that the long-term maintenance of the energy-only market results in higher electricity prices when compared to putting a capacity market into operation. Introducing a capacity market enables existing resources to be used effectively without excessive capital expenditure. The methods and conclusions presented in this paper provide valuable findings and policy insights regarding the potential economic consequences of a capacity mechanism in a power system mostly dominated by coal and undergoing an energy transition.

3. Energies

   

   Optimal Sizing and Scheduling of Hybrid Energy Systems: The Cases of Morona Santiago and the Galapagos Islands

   Pablo Benalcazar, Adam Suski, and Jacek Kamiński

   Energies, 2020

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   Hybrid energy systems (HESs) generate electricity from multiple energy sources that complement each other. Recently, due to the reduction in costs of photovoltaic (PV) modules and wind turbines, these types of systems have become economically competitive. In this study, a mathematical programming model is applied to evaluate the techno-economic feasibility of autonomous units located in two isolated areas of Ecuador: first, the province of Galapagos (subtropical island) and second, the province of Morona Santiago (Amazonian tropical forest). The two case studies suggest that HESs are potential solutions to reduce the dependence of rural villages on fossil fuels and viable mechanisms to bring electrical power to isolated communities in Ecuador. Our results reveal that not only from the economic but also from the environmental point of view, for the case of the Galapagos province, a hybrid energy system with a PV–wind–battery configuration and a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) equal to 0.36 /kWh is the optimal energy supply system. For the case of Morona Santiago, a hybrid energy system with a PV–diesel–battery configuration and an LCOE equal to 0.37 /kWh is the most suitable configuration to meet the load of a typical isolated community in Ecuador. The proposed optimization model can be used as a decision-support tool for evaluating the viability of autonomous HES projects at any other location.

4. GSM

   

   Assessment of the resource dependence of six central and Eastern European Countries using the Extractives Dependence Index

   Marcin Malec, and Pablo Benalcazar

   Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi - Mineral Resources Management,, 2020

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   For much of the last two decades, the Central and East European (CEE) economies have experienced a deep structural reform, moving away from a socialist economic system towards a market economy. The political situation of the second half of the 20th century had a significant impact on the economic development and competitiveness of these transition countries, when compared with their Western European counterparts. A vast number of studies have been conducted to analyze the structural changes required for resource-dependent economies to achieve long-term development and to understand the synergies between commodities and diversification. Yet, the dynamics of resource extraction and the resource dependence of regions that have experienced periods of sustained levels of growth have largely been overlooked, especially the Central and Eastern European region. In this context, this article presents an analysis of the level of resource dependence of six countries which joined the European Union between 2004 and 2007. Using data spanning from the year 2000 to 2017, we calculate the Extractives Dependence Index (EDI) of six former Soviet satellite nations and one former Soviet state. Our results indicate that the commodity structure of trade in the six countries which joined the European Union has changed considerably. These countries have reduced their economic dependence on extractive resources by developing their high value-added and technology-intensive sectors. Our findings also reveal that Poland experienced the highest decrease in EDI scores among the six CEE countries.